Roster Math

Teams › CAA · Compare Charleston with another team

Charleston

Charleston returns 40% of last season's minutes and rates #110 on offense and #236 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.8 to +8.9.

+1.5
Rating · #141 of 365
+2.8
Offense · #110
-1.3
Defense · #236
-5.8 to +8.9
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-12
Projected record · 10 to 20 wins
10-8
Projected in CAA · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Charleston's preseason projection of +1.5 (No. 141 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.1, less than the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 181 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.4. It returns 40% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Tavari Johnson (+3.8), Max Green (+0.6) and Eli Ellis (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Tavari Johnson, a transfer from Akron, at +3.8. Its 80% range, -5.8 to +8.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 40% · Transfer 50% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 4%

Tavari Johnson+3.8
Max Green+0.6
Eli Ellis+0.5
Ben Bradford-0.2
Kobe Edwards-0.2
Joey Scarpitti-0.3
Will Mortimore-0.3
AJ Fowler-0.3
Braden Pierce-0.4
Dennis Scott III-0.4
Martin Kalu-0.4
Chadlyn Traylor-0.6
Djordje Curcic-0.7
Kendall Taylor-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
159Tavari JohnsonG6-04TransferAkron28+5.4+3.8
1039Max GreenG6-62TransferNorthwestern17+1.4+0.6
1168Eli EllisG6-01TransferSouth Carolina23+0.9+0.5
2020Ben BradfordG6-52TransferCharlotte23-0.3-0.2
2410Kobe EdwardsG6-10FreshmanHigh school11-0.9-0.2
2544Martin KaluG6-61ReturningCharleston23-0.7-0.4
2862Will MortimoreF6-101ReturningCharleston10-1.3-0.3
3146Braden PierceC7-02TransferVillanova9-1.6-0.4
3210Joey ScarpittiG5-112ReturningCharleston6-2.0-0.3
3241Dennis Scott IIIF1Other newcomer9-1.7-0.4
3485AJ FowlerG6-41ReturningCharleston6-2.2-0.3
3556Chadlyn TraylorG6-31ReturningCharleston17-1.4-0.6
4513Djordje CurcicG6-33ReturningCharleston8-3.3-0.7
4987Kendall TaylorG6-51ReturningCharleston10-4.4-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Wed Nov 11atTemple #149-4.735%
Sun Nov 15vsSouth Carolina State #360+16.491%
Thu Nov 19atDrake #104-7.228%
Tue Nov 24NUTEP #237+3.461%
Wed Dec 02atCharlotte #131-5.832%
Sun Dec 06vsDavidson #132+4.664%
Mon Dec 14atBelmont #94-8.724%
Fri Dec 18vsNorthern Colorado #128+4.665%
Tue Dec 22vsSouth Florida #83+0.953%
Thu Dec 31vsNortheastern #296conf+7.974%
Sat Jan 02vsNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+7.372%
Thu Jan 07atDrexel #254conf+0.953%
Sat Jan 09atMonmouth #216conf-0.150%
Thu Jan 14vsCampbell #224conf+5.166%
Sat Jan 16atNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+3.160%
Mon Jan 18vsTowson #193conf+4.063%
Sat Jan 23vsElon #198conf+4.364%
Thu Jan 28atUNC Wilmington #101conf-4.536%
Sat Jan 30vsHofstra #124conf+1.254%
Thu Feb 04atHampton #288conf+1.956%
Sat Feb 06atWilliam & Mary #168conf-2.044%
Thu Feb 11vsStony Brook #283conf+7.172%
Thu Feb 18atHofstra #124conf-3.539%
Sat Feb 20atNortheastern #296conf+4.063%
Thu Feb 25vsHampton #288conf+7.272%
Sat Feb 27vsUNC Wilmington #101conf-0.349%
Tue Mar 02atCampbell #224conf+0.150%

Projected margin is from Charleston's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.