Roster Math

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Loyola Maryland

Loyola Maryland returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #345 on offense and #323 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -18.0 to -3.3.

-10.6
Rating · #344 of 365
-6.5
Offense · #345
-4.1
Defense · #323
-18.0 to -3.3
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-19
Projected record · 5 to 14 wins
7-11
Projected in Patriot · 3 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Loyola Maryland's preseason projection of -10.6 (No. 344 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.6, about the -6.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 305 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.6, more than its neighbours' -2.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.7. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (76%). The projection leans most on Troy Cicero Jr. (+0.9), Gage Howard (-0.2) and Ben Menker (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Gage Howard, a freshman, recruit No. 362, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -18.0 to -3.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 53% · Transfer 13% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 8%

Troy Cicero Jr.+0.9
Gage Howard-0.2
Ben Menker-0.7
Peter Sposito-0.7
Maximo Ortega-1.0
Goap Kodi-1.0
Carter Berg-McLean-1.1
Sebastien Emenalo-1.3
Everett Barnes-1.4
D'Andre Harrison-1.5
Sam Springer-2.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
918Troy Cicero Jr.G6-23ReturningLoyola Maryland21+1.7+0.9
2367Gage HowardC6-60FreshmanHigh school12-0.8-0.2
4524Ben MenkerG6-51ReturningLoyola Maryland8-3.3-0.7
4598Carter Berg-McLeanG6-41ReturningLoyola Maryland20-2.3-1.1
4645Goap KodiF6-102Other newcomer15-2.7-1.0
4647Maximo OrtegaG6-21TransferWofford14-2.8-1.0
4665Peter SpositoG6-23ReturningLoyola Maryland8-3.8-0.7
4805Sebastien EmenaloG6-61ReturningLoyola Maryland19-2.7-1.3
5064Everett BarnesF6-91ReturningLoyola Maryland13-4.3-1.4
5095D'Andre HarrisonF6-61TransferKansas City13-4.5-1.5
5228Sam SpringerF6-72ReturningLoyola Maryland18-5.4-2.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atGeorgetown #84-18.07%
Fri Nov 06atMount St. Mary's #204-11.019%
Thu Nov 12atTowson #193-12.216%
Fri Nov 20atVirginia #19-27.71%
Tue Nov 24vsRider #351+5.266%
Wed Dec 02atDayton #74-19.85%
Tue Dec 08atManhattan #309-7.427%
Sun Dec 13vsCentral Connecticut #316+2.257%
Fri Dec 18vsFairleigh Dickinson #334+3.260%
Mon Dec 21atHigh Point #40-24.23%
Wed Dec 30vsBoston University #230conf-4.137%
Sat Jan 02vsArmy #314conf-0.947%
Wed Jan 06atLafayette #342conf-1.844%
Sat Jan 09vsHoly Cross #352conf+2.257%
Mon Jan 11vsAmerican University #188conf-5.632%
Sat Jan 16atBucknell #313conf-3.539%
Wed Jan 20vsLafayette #342conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 23vsLehigh #256conf-3.539%
Wed Jan 27atNavy #174conf-9.322%
Sat Jan 30atHoly Cross #352conf-0.748%
Wed Feb 03vsColgate #197conf-5.334%
Sat Feb 06atAmerican University #188conf-9.323%
Wed Feb 10vsNavy #174conf-5.932%
Sat Feb 13atBoston University #230conf-7.627%
Wed Feb 17atLehigh #256conf-6.630%
Sun Feb 21vsBucknell #313conf-0.947%
Wed Feb 24atArmy #314conf-2.841%
Sat Feb 27atColgate #197conf-8.924%

Projected margin is from Loyola Maryland's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.