Teams › ACC · Compare Virginia with another team
Virginia
Virginia returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #22 on offense and #17 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +11.4 to +25.9.
Why we have them here
Virginia's preseason projection of +18.7 (No. 19 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.1, less than the +10.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 17 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.6, about its neighbours' +3.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.5. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Chance Mallory (+5.4), Thijs De Ridder (+4.9) and Jurian Dixon (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jurian Dixon, a transfer from UC Irvine, at +2.4. Its 80% range, +11.4 to +25.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 60% · Transfer 35% · Freshman 1% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Chance Mallory | G | 5-10 | 1 | Returning | Virginia | 25 | +8.7 | +5.4 |
| 63 | Thijs De Ridder | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Virginia | 26 | +7.5 | +4.9 |
| 409 | Jurian Dixon | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | UC Irvine | 27 | +3.6 | +2.4 |
| 412 | Johann Grunloh | C | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Virginia | 20 | +4.1 | +2.0 |
| 535 | Christian Harmon | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Arkansas State | 23 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| 555 | Sam Lewis | G | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Virginia | 22 | +3.0 | +1.7 |
| 1421 | Carter Lang | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Virginia | 6 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| 1436 | Elijah Gertrude | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Virginia | 7 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1524 | Owen Odom | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Virginia | 5 | +0.4 | +0.0 |
| 1668 | Desmond Roberts | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Virginia | 5 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1732 | Nolan Adekunle | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1745 | Kalu Anya | F | 6-8 | 4 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1772 | Silas Barksdale | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1806 | Favour Ibe | C | 7-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 2 | -0.5 | +0.0 |
| 2408 | Martin Carrere | G | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Virginia | 5 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| 2586 | Jan Vide | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Loyola Marymount | 21 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Drexel #254 | +21.9 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Northeastern #296 | +25.0 | 98% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | +8.5 | 75% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Bucknell #313 | +25.3 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Maryland #64 | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Old Dominion #297 | +24.9 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Loyola Maryland #344 | +27.7 | 99% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Marquette #47 | +4.3 | 64% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Xavier #57 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Kentucky #22 | +7.6 | 73% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +22.1 | 96% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  Western Carolina #152 | +19.6 | 94% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  UConn #4 | -3.2 | 40% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Clemson #46 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  SMU #53 | conf | +9.0 | 77% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Stanford #69 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  California #115 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Boston College #114 | conf | +14.5 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Miami #18 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  North Carolina #54 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +16.5 | 91% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Syracuse #71 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Duke #2 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | +11.0 | 81% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs |  Louisville #7 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Virginia Tech #45 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Florida State #90 | conf | +12.7 | 85% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Duke #2 | conf | -8.6 | 24% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  NC State #36 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
Projected margin is from Virginia's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.