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UConn
UConn returns 35% of last season's minutes and rates #4 on offense and #8 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +16.0 to +30.9.
Why we have them here
UConn's preseason projection of +23.5 (No. 4 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +11.6, about the +12.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 10 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.1, about its neighbours' +4.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.1, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 35% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (40%). The projection leans most on Silas Demary Jr. (+7.5), Braylon Mullins (+4.2) and Najai Hines (+3.3); the newcomer who matters most is Najai Hines, a transfer from Seton Hall, at +3.3. Its 80% range, +16.0 to +30.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 34% · Transfer 54% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Silas Demary Jr. | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | UConn | 27 | +11.1 | +7.5 |
| 104 | Braylon Mullins | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | UConn | 25 | +6.6 | +4.2 |
| 124 | Najai Hines | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Seton Hall | 17 | +7.5 | +3.3 |
| 202 | Nikolas Khamenia | G | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Duke | 18 | +6.1 | +2.8 |
| 300 | Nils Machowski | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Wofford | 26 | +4.3 | +2.8 |
| 577 | Jayden Ross | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | UConn | 17 | +3.4 | +1.4 |
| 950 | Colben Landrew | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +2.1 | +0.6 |
| 990 | Oskar Giltay | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Stanford | 12 | +1.9 | +0.6 |
| 1223 | Junior County | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| 1638 | Jacob Ross | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1671 | Egor Amosov | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1739 | Jaye Nash | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Jacksonville State | 18 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1891 | Elmir Džafic | C | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Arkansas | 3 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 4454 | Isaiah Shaw | G | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Northern Arizona | 12 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | +32.0 | >99% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  Michigan #11 | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Wagner #291 | +25.7 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Ohio State #27 | +11.0 | 82% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Arizona #3 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Duke #2 | -2.0 | 43% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | vs |  Rider #351 | +29.0 | >99% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | N |  Illinois #5 | +0.2 | 51% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +39.0 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Kansas #10 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Delaware State #363 | +32.1 | >99% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Virginia #19 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Wed Dec 23 | vs |  Georgetown #84 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Butler #86 | conf | +8.5 | 75% |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Creighton #41 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  DePaul #97 | conf | +14.4 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Seton Hall #106 | conf | +9.6 | 79% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Marquette #47 | conf | +10.7 | 81% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Xavier #57 | conf | +11.9 | 83% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Providence #49 | conf | +4.9 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Butler #86 | conf | +14.1 | 87% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | Georgetown #84 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Fri Jan 29 | at |  St. John's #21 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Villanova #24 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs | Creighton #41 | conf | +9.9 | 79% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | DePaul #97 | conf | +9.1 | 77% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at | Villanova #24 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Seton Hall #106 | conf | +15.3 | 90% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Marquette #47 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Providence #49 | conf | +11.3 | 82% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | St. John's #21 | conf | +6.7 | 71% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Xavier #57 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
Projected margin is from UConn's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.