Roster Math

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Delaware State

Delaware State returns 69% of last season's minutes and rates #364 on offense and #316 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -24.2 to -9.5.

-16.9
Rating · #363 of 365
-13.1
Offense · #364
-3.8
Defense · #316
-24.2 to -9.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
8-18
Projected record · 4 to 12 wins
5-9
Projected in MEAC · 2 to 8 wins

Why we have them here

Delaware State's preseason projection of -16.9 (No. 363 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -10.0, less than the -7.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 363 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.6, less than its neighbours' -3.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.6. It returns 69% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Dean Shepherd (-0.5), Omar Stephen (-0.7) and Theodore Pendergrass III (-1.0); the newcomer who matters most is Theodore Pendergrass III, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -1.0. Its 80% range, -24.2 to -9.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 63% · Other newcomer 6%

Dean Shepherd-0.5
Omar Stephen-0.7
Theodore Pendergrass III-1.0
Cyril Obasogie-1.0
John Clemmons-1.2
Jalen St Clair-1.6
Muazibini Adamu-1.8
Kareem Watson-1.8
Camian Shell-2.0
Ademar Santos-2.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
3459Dean ShepherdG6-33ReturningDelaware State16-1.4-0.5
4609Cyril ObasogieC6-111ReturningDelaware State16-2.5-1.0
4752Theodore Pendergrass IIIF6-22Other newcomer12-3.2-1.0
4771Omar StephenF1ReturningDelaware State7-4.4-0.7
5032John ClemmonsG6-62ReturningDelaware State10-4.5-1.2
5101Jalen St ClairG6-11ReturningDelaware State16-4.1-1.6
5164Camian ShellG5-103ReturningDelaware State18-4.3-2.0
5190Muazibini AdamuC6-101ReturningDelaware State13-5.4-1.8
5217Kareem WatsonF6-83ReturningDelaware State11-6.5-1.8
5218Ademar SantosF6-81ReturningDelaware State18-5.2-2.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Thu Nov 05atNavy #174-16.09%
Tue Nov 10atGeorgetown #84-21.54%
Sat Nov 14atEast Carolina #182-16.39%
Fri Nov 20vsNiagara #329-0.150%
Tue Nov 24atChattanooga #226-14.112%
Sat Nov 28atNorth Carolina A&T #285-12.515%
Tue Dec 01vsNew Haven #326-0.249%
Sat Dec 05vsUMBC #180-5.533%
Tue Dec 08vsBinghamton #330-0.150%
Sat Dec 12vsLongwood #195-5.234%
Tue Dec 15atUConn #4-32.1<1%
Tue Dec 29atRutgers #102-20.45%
Sat Jan 02atCoppin State #364conf-2.442%
Sat Jan 09atNorfolk State #300conf-10.220%
Mon Jan 11vsHoward #196conf-8.225%
Sat Jan 16atMorgan State #348conf-6.929%
Sat Jan 23vsNorth Carolina Central #353conf-0.748%
Mon Jan 25vsSouth Carolina State #360conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 30atMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf-5.333%
Sat Feb 06vsCoppin State #364conf+2.558%
Sat Feb 13vsNorfolk State #300conf-4.635%
Mon Feb 15atHoward #196conf-12.116%
Sat Feb 20vsMorgan State #348conf-1.346%
Sat Feb 27atNorth Carolina Central #353conf-6.031%
Mon Mar 01atSouth Carolina State #360conf-4.536%
Thu Mar 04vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf-0.249%

Projected margin is from Delaware State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.