Teams › Big East · Compare Providence with another team
Providence
Providence returns 19% of last season's minutes and rates #41 on offense and #59 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +4.8 to +19.5.
Why we have them here
Providence's preseason projection of +12.2 (No. 49 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.9, about the +7.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 80 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.6, about its neighbours' +1.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 19% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Miles Byrd (+3.1), Devin Vanterpool (+2.5) and Jason Edwards (+2.0); the newcomer who matters most is Miles Byrd, a transfer from San Diego State, at +3.1. Its 80% range, +4.8 to +19.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 19% · Transfer 74% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | Miles Byrd | G | 6-6 | 4 | Transfer | San Diego State | 22 | +5.7 | +3.1 |
| 321 | Devin Vanterpool | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Florida Atlantic | 23 | +4.4 | +2.5 |
| 407 | Jason Edwards | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Providence | 19 | +4.2 | +2.0 |
| 493 | Malik Mack | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | Georgetown | 23 | +3.3 | +1.9 |
| 509 | Arrinten Page | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Northwestern | 17 | +3.8 | +1.6 |
| 740 | Ryan Mela | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Providence | 19 | +2.4 | +1.2 |
| 1068 | Ryan Sabol | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Buffalo | 25 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| 1080 | Jacob Bannarbie | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | UNLV | 13 | +1.5 | +0.5 |
| 1103 | Gavin Hightower | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | South Florida | 8 | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| 1617 | Samson Aletan | C | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Yale | 16 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2195 | Leonardo Marangon | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |
| 2195 | Javon Bardwell | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |
| 2241 | Clyde Walters | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |
| 2381 | Dink Pate | G | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Maine #318 | +20.9 | 95% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | N |  Nebraska #12 | -6.1 | 31% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Bryant #327 | +21.2 | 96% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Colorado #85 | +10.1 | 79% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Sacred Heart #272 | +19.4 | 94% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  VCU #44 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Stonehill #354 | +24.8 | 98% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Rhode Island #148 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Fairfield #248 | +18.3 | 93% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Butler #86 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Syracuse #71 | +2.5 | 58% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Villanova #24 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  St. John's #21 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  DePaul #97 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Marquette #47 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Xavier #57 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at | St. John's #21 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  UConn #4 | conf | -4.9 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Georgetown #84 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Butler #86 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Seton Hall #106 | conf | +8.8 | 76% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Creighton #41 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Marquette #47 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | DePaul #97 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Villanova #24 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Seton Hall #106 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Georgetown #84 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | UConn #4 | conf | -11.3 | 18% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Xavier #57 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Creighton #41 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
Projected margin is from Providence's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.