Roster Math

Teams › Metro · Compare Sacred Heart with another team

Sacred Heart

Sacred Heart returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #230 on offense and #299 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.3 to +2.2.

-5.1
Rating · #272 of 365
-1.7
Offense · #230
-3.4
Defense · #299
-12.3 to +2.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-16
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
10-10
Projected in Metro · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Sacred Heart's preseason projection of -5.1 (No. 272 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.9, less than the -2.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 262 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, about its neighbours' -1.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.3. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Mekhi Conner (+0.8), Samson Reilly (+0.2) and Malik Sheppard (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Samson Reilly, a transfer from Quinnipiac, at +0.2. Its 80% range, -12.3 to +2.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 53% · Transfer 21% · Other newcomer 26%

Mekhi Conner+0.8
Samson Reilly+0.2
Malik Sheppard-0.4
Alex Woodring-0.4
Jeremiah Jacobs-0.4
Mooda Gittens-0.4
Kevin Pikiell-0.4
Landon Krygier-0.4
DJ Brown-0.4
Jaylen Robinson-0.5
Kedrick Curtis-0.5
Jojo Wallace-0.5
Jo Van Buggenhout-0.7
Lucius Gibson-Savadel-0.7
Taj Bryant-0.8
Fallou Gueye-1.2
Abdou Yadd-1.4
Jaden Slaughter-1.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
985Mekhi ConnerG6-12ReturningSacred Heart25+1.3+0.8
1329Samson ReillyG6-21TransferQuinnipiac13+0.7+0.2
3435Jaylen RobinsonF6-71TransferRichmond11-1.6-0.5
3547Kevin PikiellF6-30Other newcomer9-1.9-0.4
3562Mooda GittensF6-40Other newcomer8-2.0-0.4
3578DJ BrownF6-30Other newcomer9-1.9-0.4
3647Landon KrygierF6-50Other newcomer9-2.0-0.4
3808Kedrick CurtisF6-70Other newcomer9-2.2-0.5
3827Jojo WallaceG6-32Other newcomer9-2.2-0.5
3835Jo Van BuggenhoutG6-31TransferIndiana State17-1.6-0.7
3835Jeremiah JacobsG6-81ReturningSacred Heart6-2.6-0.4
3890Malik SheppardG5-102ReturningSacred Heart6-2.8-0.4
3958Alex WoodringF6-81ReturningSacred Heart6-2.9-0.4
4351Taj BryantG6-22ReturningSacred Heart13-2.4-0.8
4478Lucius Gibson-SavadelF6-112ReturningSacred Heart9-3.2-0.7
5012Jaden SlaughterG6-51ReturningSacred Heart17-3.4-1.5
5018Fallou GueyeG6-62ReturningSacred Heart12-4.1-1.2
5076Abdou YaddF6-91ReturningSacred Heart13-4.4-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Thu Nov 05vsMaine #318+7.874%
Sun Nov 08atNew Hampshire #335-2.642%
Thu Nov 12vsCentral Connecticut #316+7.773%
Tue Nov 17atProvidence #49-19.46%
Tue Nov 24atRutgers #102-12.915%
Sun Nov 29vsNJIT #347+10.380%
Fri Dec 04atMarist #205conf-4.635%
Sun Dec 06atSaint Peter's #289conf-1.745%
Wed Dec 09vsUMass Lowell #287+6.670%
Mon Dec 14vsQueens University #142+1.454%
Wed Dec 16atGeorgetown #84-14.113%
Sun Dec 20atDartmouth #290-5.034%
Tue Dec 22atKentucky #22-23.53%
Fri Jan 01vsNiagara #329conf+5.066%
Sun Jan 03vsCanisius #346conf+6.871%
Fri Jan 08atSiena #208conf-4.137%
Sun Jan 10vsManhattan #309conf+4.464%
Wed Jan 13vsMount St. Mary's #204conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 16atIona #282conf-2.243%
Mon Jan 18vsQuinnipiac #200conf+0.551%
Fri Jan 22atCanisius #346conf+1.956%
Sun Jan 24vsMarist #205conf+0.652%
Fri Jan 29atRider #351conf+2.959%
Sun Jan 31vsIona #282conf+3.361%
Fri Feb 05vsFairfield #248conf+1.956%
Sun Feb 07atManhattan #309conf-0.449%
Sat Feb 13atMount St. Mary's #204conf-4.037%
Fri Feb 19vsSaint Peter's #289conf+3.461%
Sun Feb 21vsSiena #208conf+0.652%
Fri Feb 26atMerrimack #176conf-5.034%
Sun Feb 28atFairfield #248conf-3.140%

Projected margin is from Sacred Heart's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.