Teams › Ivy · Compare Dartmouth with another team

Dartmouth

Dartmouth returns 69% of last season's minutes and rates #320 on offense and #235 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.6 to +1.3.

-6.2

Rating · #290 of 365

-4.9

Offense · #320

-1.3

Defense · #235

-13.6 to +1.3

80% range

Chance of top 25

Chance of No. 1

10-16

Projected record · 5 to 14 wins

5-9

Projected in Ivy · 2 to 8 wins

Why we have them here

Dartmouth's preseason projection of -6.2 (No. 290 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.4, less than the -3.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 232 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.5. It returns 69% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Anton Strelnikov (+0.0), Tyler Garrett (-0.2) and Shanon Simango (-0.3). Its 80% range, -13.6 to +1.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 69%

Anton Strelnikov+0.0

Tyler Garrett-0.2

Shanon Simango-0.3

Khai Lockwood-0.5

Cameron McNamee-0.6

Nikola Abusara-0.7

Patrick Tivnan Jr.-0.8

Cam Hiatt-1.0

Ben Brown-1.3

Rank	Player	Pos	Ht	D1 yrs	Group	From	MPG	Rating	Contrib.
1577	Anton Strelnikov	C	6-8	1	Returning	Dartmouth	14	+0.1	+0.0
2282	Tyler Garrett	F	6-10	1	Returning	Dartmouth	12	-0.7	-0.2
2631	Shanon Simango	F	6-8	2	Returning	Dartmouth	14	-0.9	-0.3
3410	Cameron McNamee	G	6-6	2	Returning	Dartmouth	23	-1.1	-0.6
3680	Nikola Abusara	G	6-5	3	Returning	Dartmouth	22	-1.3	-0.7
3987	Khai Lockwood	G	6-1	1	Returning	Dartmouth	9	-2.4	-0.5
4439	Cam Hiatt	G	6-4	1	Returning	Dartmouth	20	-2.0	-1.0
4504	Patrick Tivnan Jr.	F	6-8	3	Returning	Dartmouth	12	-2.8	-0.8
5041	Ben Brown	G	6-2	3	Returning	Dartmouth	13	-4.1	-1.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

Date		Opponent		Proj. margin	Win prob.
Mon Nov 02	at	Marist #205		-8.5	24%
Sun Nov 08	vs	Central Connecticut #316		+6.8	71%
Wed Nov 11	at	UAlbany #293		-5.2	34%
Sun Nov 15	at	Boston University #230		-7.7	27%
Wed Nov 25	vs	Holy Cross #352		+9.8	79%
Sun Nov 29	at	App State #229		-7.8	26%
Wed Dec 02	at	Davidson #132		-11.1	18%
Sat Dec 12	at	New Hampshire #335		-3.4	39%
Wed Dec 16	at	Temple #149		-10.0	21%
Sun Dec 20	vs	Sacred Heart #272		+5.0	66%
Tue Dec 29	vs	Stonehill #354		+10.3	80%
Mon Jan 04	vs	Harvard #123	conf	-3.5	39%
Sat Jan 09	vs	Cornell #109	conf	-4.8	35%
Sat Jan 16	at	Princeton #164	conf	-6.7	29%
Mon Jan 18	at	Pennsylvania #144	conf	-7.8	27%
Sat Jan 23	at	Columbia #169	conf	-6.7	29%
Fri Jan 29	vs	Brown #184	conf	-1.2	46%
Sat Jan 30	vs	Yale #95	conf	-5.9	32%
Sat Feb 06	at	Harvard #123	conf	-7.3	28%
Fri Feb 12	at	Brown #184	conf	-5.7	32%
Sat Feb 13	at	Yale #95	conf	-11.3	18%
Sat Feb 20	vs	Columbia #169	conf	-1.6	45%
Fri Feb 26	vs	Princeton #164	conf	-1.8	44%
Sat Feb 27	vs	Pennsylvania #144	conf	-2.7	41%
Sat Mar 06	at	Cornell #109	conf	-9.3	23%

Projected margin is from Dartmouth's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.