Teams › Ivy · Compare Yale with another team

Yale

Yale returns 77% of last season's minutes and rates #53 on offense and #198 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -1.4 to +13.5.

+6.1

Rating · #95 of 365

+6.2

Offense · #53

-0.2

Defense · #198

-1.4 to +13.5

80% range

Chance of top 25

Chance of No. 1

16-10

Projected record · 11 to 21 wins

9-5

Projected in Ivy · 6 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Yale's preseason projection of +6.1 (No. 95 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.0, less than the +3.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 51 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.4, more than its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.3. It returns 77% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (46%). The projection leans most on Trevor Mullin (+2.1), Riley Fox (+1.3) and Jordan Brathwaite (+0.4). Its 80% range, -1.4 to +13.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 77%

Trevor Mullin+2.1

Riley Fox+1.3

Jordan Brathwaite+0.4

Courtney Wallace+0.4

Daniel Ogunyemi+0.2

Alvin Loving-0.1

Jacob Tsai-0.3

Jeannot Basima-0.4

Jack Sullivan-0.5

Rank	Player	Pos	Ht	D1 yrs	Group	From	MPG	Rating	Contrib.
510	Trevor Mullin	G	6-1	3	Returning	Yale	28	+2.9	+2.1
721	Riley Fox	F	6-6	2	Returning	Yale	24	+2.3	+1.3
1174	Courtney Wallace	G	6-2	1	Returning	Yale	16	+1.0	+0.4
1206	Jordan Brathwaite	G	6-4	2	Returning	Yale	24	+0.7	+0.4
1304	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	6-7	1	Returning	Yale	15	+0.7	+0.2
1909	Alvin Loving	G	6-4	1	Returning	Yale	12	-0.3	-0.1
2693	Jacob Tsai	G	5-11	1	Returning	Yale	10	-1.1	-0.3
3259	Jeannot Basima	G	6-4	2	Returning	Yale	11	-1.5	-0.4
3375	Jack Sullivan	F	6-11	1	Returning	Yale	13	-1.4	-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

Date		Opponent		Proj. margin	Win prob.
Mon Nov 02	vs	Howard #196		+11.1	82%
Fri Nov 06	at	UCF #70		-8.2	25%
Tue Nov 10	at	Baylor #37		-12.3	16%
Fri Nov 13	at	Northeastern #296		+3.9	62%
Wed Nov 18	vs	Vermont #202		+10.8	81%
Mon Nov 23	N	Belmont #94		-0.2	50%
Tue Nov 24	N	App State #229		+5.7	68%
Wed Nov 25	N	Wright State #165		+3.9	63%
Sun Nov 29	vs	Quinnipiac #200		+11.5	82%
Sat Dec 05	at	Delaware #325		+5.8	68%
Sat Dec 12	N	UC Santa Barbara #103		+1.1	54%
Tue Dec 29	at	San Francisco #189		-0.4	49%
Mon Jan 04	vs	Brown #184	conf	+7.5	73%
Sat Jan 09	vs	Princeton #164	conf	+6.5	70%
Fri Jan 15	at	Columbia #169	conf	+1.8	56%
Mon Jan 18	at	Cornell #109	conf	-0.2	49%
Sat Jan 23	vs	Pennsylvania #144	conf	+6.2	69%
Fri Jan 29	at	Harvard #123	conf	+0.9	53%
Sat Jan 30	at	Dartmouth #290	conf	+5.9	68%
Fri Feb 05	at	Brown #184	conf	+2.8	59%
Fri Feb 12	vs	Harvard #123	conf	+4.8	65%
Sat Feb 13	vs	Dartmouth #290	conf	+11.3	82%
Sat Feb 20	at	Pennsylvania #144	conf	+1.0	53%
Fri Feb 26	vs	Columbia #169	conf	+7.0	72%
Sat Feb 27	vs	Cornell #109	conf	+4.6	64%
Sat Mar 06	at	Princeton #164	conf	+1.6	55%

Projected margin is from Yale's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.