Roster Math

Teams › CUSA · Compare Delaware with another team

Delaware

Delaware returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #280 on offense and #343 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.9 to -1.1.

-8.6
Rating · #325 of 365
-3.4
Offense · #280
-5.2
Defense · #343
-15.9 to -1.1
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-20
Projected record · 4 to 13 wins
5-13
Projected in CUSA · 2 to 9 wins

Why we have them here

Delaware's preseason projection of -8.6 (No. 325 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.9, about the -5.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 326 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.0, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (73%). The projection leans most on Kachi Nzeh (+0.4), Chuck Bailey III (+0.0) and DeShawn Harris-Smith (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Kachi Nzeh, a transfer from Little Rock, at +0.4. Its 80% range, -15.9 to -1.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 37% · Transfer 46% · Other newcomer 11%

Kachi Nzeh+0.4
Chuck Bailey III+0.0
DeShawn Harris-Smith-0.2
Steven Solano-0.2
Alex McFadden-0.5
Brandon Baffone-0.6
Nick Petronio-0.7
Bouna Kebe-0.7
Lance Piper-0.7
Devin Dinkins-0.9
Jayden Taylor-1.6
Mason Ellison-2.0
Alex Kazanecki-2.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1263Kachi NzehF6-83TransferLittle Rock24+0.6+0.4
1706Chuck Bailey IIIG6-43TransferNevada18-0.1+0.0
2009DeShawn Harris-SmithG6-53TransferGeorgetown16-0.4-0.2
2631Steven SolanoC7-02TransferSaint Joseph's8-1.2-0.2
4077Devin DinkinsG5-104TransferManhattan26-1.4-0.9
4178Alex McFaddenG6-12ReturningDelaware7-3.0-0.5
4239Nick PetronioF6-30Other newcomer11-2.4-0.7
4357Lance PiperF6-60Other newcomer11-2.6-0.7
4507Brandon BaffoneG6-13ReturningDelaware6-3.8-0.6
4534Bouna KebeF6-91ReturningDelaware9-3.3-0.7
5131Jayden TaylorF6-81ReturningDelaware15-4.5-1.6
5205Mason EllisonG6-41ReturningDelaware15-5.5-2.0
5224Alex KazaneckiG6-61ReturningDelaware22-4.8-2.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atWisconsin #34-22.04%
Wed Nov 11vsJames Madison #147-2.641%
Sun Nov 15vsColgate #197-0.947%
Fri Nov 20atCal State Northridge #227-9.722%
Sun Nov 22atUCLA #28-22.04%
Sat Nov 28atStony Brook #283-7.328%
Wed Dec 02vsBucknell #313+3.260%
Sat Dec 05vsYale #95-5.832%
Thu Dec 10vsWilliam & Mary #168-1.944%
Tue Dec 15atDuquesne #156-11.917%
Sun Dec 20atBryant #327-5.732%
Sat Jan 02atLiberty #150conf-8.823%
Thu Jan 07atMissouri State #201conf-6.231%
Sat Jan 09atFlorida International #143conf-9.522%
Thu Jan 14vsWestern Kentucky #160conf-5.433%
Sat Jan 16vsMiddle Tennessee #127conf-6.629%
Thu Jan 21atKennesaw State #167conf-8.724%
Sat Jan 23atJacksonville State #203conf-6.031%
Thu Jan 28vsNew Mexico State #137conf-6.031%
Sat Jan 30vsSam Houston #185conf-4.436%
Thu Feb 04vsFlorida International #143conf-6.231%
Sat Feb 06vsMissouri State #201conf-3.738%
Thu Feb 11atMiddle Tennessee #127conf-10.021%
Sat Feb 13atWestern Kentucky #160conf-8.325%
Thu Feb 18vsJacksonville State #203conf-3.638%
Sat Feb 20vsKennesaw State #167conf-5.134%
Thu Feb 25atSam Houston #185conf-7.527%
Sat Feb 27atNew Mexico State #137conf-8.923%
Sat Mar 06vsLiberty #150conf-5.333%

Projected margin is from Delaware's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.