Roster Math

Teams › Patriot · Compare Colgate with another team

Colgate

Colgate returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #199 on offense and #213 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.9 to +5.9.

-1.6
Rating · #197 of 365
-1.0
Offense · #199
-0.6
Defense · #213
-8.9 to +5.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-15
Projected record · 10 to 20 wins
11-7
Projected in Patriot · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Colgate's preseason projection of -1.6 (No. 197 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.3, about the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 204 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.2, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.4. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Andrew Alekseyenko (+2.5), Sam Wright (+0.9) and Josh Ahayere (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Blake Forrest, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -8.9 to +5.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 85% · Other newcomer 15%

Andrew Alekseyenko+2.5
Sam Wright+0.9
Josh Ahayere+0.0
Blake Forrest-0.3
Jonathan Niv-0.4
Stevie Clark-0.5
Charlie Pugh-0.5
Parker Jones-0.5
Ben Tweedy-0.5
Ayomi Odetoyinbo-0.6
Cameron Brennan-0.7
Ethan Brown-0.8
Cooper Wright-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
397Andrew AlekseyenkoF6-81ReturningColgate28+3.6+2.5
962Sam WrightF6-93ReturningColgate26+1.4+0.9
1725Josh AhayereG6-32ReturningColgate24-0.1+0.0
2891Ben TweedyG6-42ReturningColgate27-0.8-0.5
2957Blake ForrestF5-112Other newcomer9-1.4-0.3
3325Jonathan NivG6-51ReturningColgate9-1.7-0.4
3565Stevie ClarkF6-62Other newcomer10-1.8-0.5
3659Parker JonesF6-73Other newcomer10-1.9-0.5
3713Ayomi OdetoyinboF6-101ReturningColgate15-1.6-0.6
3720Charlie PughG6-41ReturningColgate9-2.1-0.5
4472Cameron BrennanF7-02ReturningColgate9-3.1-0.7
4585Ethan BrownF6-101ReturningColgate11-3.0-0.8
4931Cooper WrightF6-53ReturningColgate14-3.4-1.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atWashington #92-11.418%
Sat Nov 07atDrexel #254-4.137%
Wed Nov 11atSt. John's #21-20.65%
Sun Nov 15atDelaware #325+0.953%
Fri Nov 27atHofstra #124-8.624%
Sat Nov 28NVermont #202+0.150%
Sun Nov 29NMerrimack #176-0.748%
Sat Dec 05vsCornell #109+1.956%
Tue Dec 08atSyracuse #71-13.913%
Sat Dec 12atIona #282-2.941%
Sun Dec 20vsSiena #208+5.668%
Tue Dec 22atClemson #46-15.410%
Wed Dec 30atBucknell #313conf+2.759%
Sat Jan 02atLafayette #342conf+4.464%
Wed Jan 06vsAmerican University #188conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 09vsArmy #314conf+6.971%
Wed Jan 13atNavy #174conf-3.240%
Sat Jan 16atHoly Cross #352conf+5.467%
Mon Jan 18vsBoston University #230conf+3.461%
Sat Jan 23vsBucknell #313conf+6.871%
Mon Jan 25atLehigh #256conf-0.249%
Sat Jan 30vsNavy #174conf+1.655%
Wed Feb 03atLoyola Maryland #344conf+5.366%
Sat Feb 06vsLafayette #342conf+8.275%
Wed Feb 10atBoston University #230conf-1.545%
Sat Feb 13atArmy #314conf+3.561%
Wed Feb 17vsHoly Cross #352conf+9.678%
Sun Feb 21atAmerican University #188conf-3.040%
Wed Feb 24vsLehigh #256conf+4.464%
Sat Feb 27vsLoyola Maryland #344conf+8.976%

Projected margin is from Colgate's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.