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Washington
Washington returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #70 on offense and #132 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.8 to +14.1.
Why we have them here
Washington's preseason projection of +6.6 (No. 92 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.1, about the +3.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 61 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.8, about its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.3. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Ryan Beasley (+2.2), Wesley Yates III (+2.0) and LeJuan Watts (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Ryan Beasley, a transfer from San Francisco, at +2.2. Its 80% range, -0.8 to +14.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 41% · Transfer 51% · Freshman 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 453 | Ryan Beasley | G | 5-11 | 3 | Transfer | San Francisco | 27 | +3.3 | +2.2 |
| 511 | Wesley Yates III | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Washington | 27 | +3.0 | +2.0 |
| 527 | LeJuan Watts | F | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Texas Tech | 24 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| 826 | Steele Venters | G | 6-7 | 6 | Transfer | Gonzaga | 15 | +2.4 | +0.9 |
| 1255 | Jasir Rencher | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Washington | 11 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| 1361 | Parker Friedrichsen | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Davidson | 21 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1630 | Bryson Tucker | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Washington | 18 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1954 | BJ Roy | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Washington | 5 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2374 | Nikola Dzepina | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Washington | 9 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2397 | Lattimore Ford | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| 2496 | Lathan Sommerville | C | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Washington | 12 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2538 | Harun Zrno | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Rutgers | 16 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Colgate #197 | +11.4 | 82% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +28.1 | 99% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Utah #72 | -9.0 | 23% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | +13.9 | 87% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  BYU #23 | -8.2 | 25% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Norfolk State #300 | +14.9 | 89% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  USC #35 | conf | -8.6 | 25% |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Southern Utah #292 | +15.1 | 89% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  UCLA #28 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Baylor #37 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Cornell #109 | +7.9 | 74% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -13.3 | 14% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -14.4 | 12% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | -0.8 | 48% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at | UCLA #28 | conf | -9.8 | 21% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Minnesota #65 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Sun Feb 07 | at |  Oregon #58 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | USC #35 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -9.7 | 22% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Penn State #89 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Maryland #64 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | -8.8 | 24% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -8.8 | 23% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Oregon #58 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
Projected margin is from Washington's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.