Teams › Big Ten · Compare Michigan State with another team
Michigan State
Michigan State returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #10 on offense and #6 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +15.4 to +29.9.
Why we have them here
Michigan State's preseason projection of +22.6 (No. 6 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +12.3, about the +11.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 12 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.8, about its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.1, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (35%). The projection leans most on Jeremy Fears Jr. (+11.5), Kur Teng (+2.6) and Jordan Scott (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Anton Bonke, a transfer from Charlotte, at +1.8. Its 80% range, +15.4 to +29.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 67% · Transfer 11% · Freshman 20% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Fears Jr. | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Michigan State | 32 | +14.6 | +11.5 |
| 266 | Kur Teng | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Michigan State | 20 | +5.1 | +2.6 |
| 335 | Jordan Scott | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Michigan State | 21 | +4.6 | +2.4 |
| 424 | Coen Carr | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Michigan State | 26 | +3.6 | +2.3 |
| 493 | Cam Ward | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Michigan State | 18 | +3.8 | +1.7 |
| 505 | Anton Bonke | C | 7-2 | 2 | Transfer | Charlotte | 22 | +3.3 | +1.8 |
| 999 | Carlos Medlock Jr. | G | 5-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 14 | +1.7 | +0.6 |
| 1088 | Jasiah Jervis | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | +1.5 | +0.4 |
| 1221 | Jesse McCulloch | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Michigan State | 9 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| 1229 | Ethan Taylor | C | 7-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 1454 | Brennan Walton | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Michigan State | 5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1474 | Colin Walton | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Michigan State | 5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1477 | Julius Avent | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1649 | Matthew Watkins | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1689 | Kaleb Glenn | F | 6-7 | 3 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Quinnipiac #200 | +23.8 | 97% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Toledo #173 | +22.0 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | N |  Duke #2 | -2.6 | 41% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Northern Iowa #88 | +16.2 | 91% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Tennessee #13 | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Detroit Mercy #312 | +27.4 | 99% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Arkansas #25 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +11.6 | 83% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Drake #104 | +18.8 | 94% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Maryland #64 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Merrimack #176 | +21.3 | 96% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Gonzaga #14 | +1.7 | 56% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +22.1 | 96% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Pennsylvania #144 | +21.5 | 96% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +14.4 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  USC #35 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +11.4 | 82% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Penn State #89 | conf | +14.2 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs | Maryland #64 | conf | +12.1 | 84% |
| Fri Feb 05 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +15.4 | 89% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Nebraska #12 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Indiana #55 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Fri Feb 26 | vs | Michigan #11 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
Projected margin is from Michigan State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.