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Liberty
Liberty returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #117 on offense and #243 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.3 to +8.4.
Why we have them here
Liberty's preseason projection of +1.0 (No. 150 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.8, less than the +0.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 107 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, more than its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.3. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (52%). The projection leans most on Cooper Campbell (+2.4), Ryan Jones Jr. (-0.1) and Zander Carter (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Cooper Campbell, a transfer from Troy, at +2.4. Its 80% range, -6.3 to +8.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 42% · Transfer 27% · Freshman 20% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 439 | Cooper Campbell | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Troy | 30 | +3.2 | +2.4 |
| 1946 | Ryan Jones Jr. | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Liberty | 12 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2233 | Zander Carter | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Liberty | 19 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2466 | TJ Drain | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Liberty | 12 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2760 | Eli Sancomb | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 15 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| 2871 | Dillon Claussen | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.3 | -0.3 | ||
| 3000 | JC Shirer Jr. | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Liberty | 10 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3027 | Torr Sorensen | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Liberty | 10 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3410 | Eli Herbert | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 13 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3479 | Reece Davidson | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 13 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3851 | Brady Kester | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Liberty | 10 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| 4083 | Drew Grimes | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Liberty | 10 | -2.3 | -0.6 |
| 4562 | Cobi Campbell | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Troy | 25 | -2.0 | -1.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 01 | N | -8.5 | 24% | ||
| Fri Nov 13 | vs | +14.5 | 88% | ||
| Tue Nov 17 | N | +2.0 | 56% | ||
| Fri Nov 20 | N | +0.0 | 50% | ||
| Sun Nov 22 | N | -0.5 | 48% | ||
| Wed Nov 25 | N | +0.5 | 52% | ||
| Fri Nov 27 | N | -1.0 | 47% | ||
| Sat Nov 28 | at | -7.4 | 27% | ||
| Thu Dec 17 | vs | +18.0 | 93% | ||
| Sat Dec 19 | vs | +0.7 | 52% | ||
| Tue Dec 22 | vs | +14.5 | 88% | ||
| Sat Jan 02 | vs | conf | +8.8 | 77% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at | conf | -2.8 | 41% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | at | conf | +0.0 | 50% | |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs | conf | +1.8 | 56% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs | conf | +3.3 | 61% | |
| Thu Jan 21 | at | conf | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | conf | -2.0 | 44% | |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | conf | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | conf | +2.5 | 58% | |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | conf | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | conf | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | conf | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | conf | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | conf | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | conf | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | conf | -2.6 | 42% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | conf | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
Projected margin is from Liberty's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.