Roster Math

Teams › CUSA · Compare Liberty with another team

Liberty

Liberty returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #117 on offense and #243 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.3 to +8.4.

+1.0
Rating · #150 of 365
+2.5
Offense · #117
-1.5
Defense · #243
-6.3 to +8.4
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-13
Projected record · 11 to 22 wins
10-8
Projected in CUSA · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Liberty's preseason projection of +1.0 (No. 150 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.8, less than the +0.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 107 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, more than its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.3. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (52%). The projection leans most on Cooper Campbell (+2.4), Ryan Jones Jr. (-0.1) and Zander Carter (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Cooper Campbell, a transfer from Troy, at +2.4. Its 80% range, -6.3 to +8.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 42% · Transfer 27% · Freshman 20% · Other newcomer 5%

Cooper Campbell+2.4
Ryan Jones Jr.-0.1
Zander Carter-0.3
TJ Drain-0.3
Dillon Claussen-0.3
Torr Sorensen-0.4
JC Shirer Jr.-0.4
Eli Sancomb-0.4
Eli Herbert-0.5
Reece Davidson-0.5
Brady Kester-0.5
Drew Grimes-0.6
Cobi Campbell-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
439Cooper CampbellG6-12TransferTroy30+3.2+2.4
1946Ryan Jones Jr.F6-82ReturningLiberty12-0.4-0.1
2233Zander CarterG6-61ReturningLiberty19-0.5-0.3
2466TJ DrainF6-81ReturningLiberty12-0.9-0.3
2760Eli SancombG6-50FreshmanHigh school15-1.0-0.4
2871Dillon ClaussenF1Other newcomer10-1.3-0.3
3000JC Shirer Jr.G6-33ReturningLiberty10-1.4-0.4
3027Torr SorensenF6-71ReturningLiberty10-1.4-0.4
3410Eli HerbertG6-10FreshmanHigh school13-1.5-0.5
3479Reece DavidsonF6-70FreshmanHigh school13-1.5-0.5
3851Brady KesterF6-81ReturningLiberty10-2.0-0.5
4083Drew GrimesF6-91ReturningLiberty10-2.3-0.6
4562Cobi CampbellG6-21TransferTroy25-2.0-1.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Sun Nov 01NHigh Point #40-8.524%
Fri Nov 13vsNorth Carolina Central #353+14.588%
Tue Nov 17NSouthern Illinois #206+2.056%
Fri Nov 20NRhode Island #148+0.050%
Sun Nov 22NRichmond #136-0.548%
Wed Nov 25NPrinceton #164+0.552%
Fri Nov 27NSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130-1.047%
Sat Nov 28atUNC Wilmington #101-7.427%
Thu Dec 17vsCoppin State #364+18.093%
Sat Dec 19vsDayton #74+0.752%
Tue Dec 22vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356+14.588%
Sat Jan 02vsDelaware #325conf+8.877%
Thu Jan 07atFlorida International #143conf-2.841%
Sat Jan 09atMissouri State #201conf+0.050%
Thu Jan 14vsMiddle Tennessee #127conf+1.856%
Sat Jan 16vsWestern Kentucky #160conf+3.361%
Thu Jan 21atJacksonville State #203conf+0.150%
Sat Jan 23atKennesaw State #167conf-2.044%
Thu Jan 28vsSam Houston #185conf+4.263%
Sat Jan 30vsNew Mexico State #137conf+2.558%
Thu Feb 04vsMissouri State #201conf+4.665%
Sat Feb 06vsFlorida International #143conf+2.859%
Thu Feb 11atWestern Kentucky #160conf-1.744%
Sat Feb 13atMiddle Tennessee #127conf-3.738%
Thu Feb 18vsKennesaw State #167conf+3.762%
Sat Feb 20vsJacksonville State #203conf+4.665%
Thu Feb 25atNew Mexico State #137conf-2.642%
Sat Feb 27atSam Houston #185conf-0.947%
Sat Mar 06atDelaware #325conf+5.367%

Projected margin is from Liberty's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.