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Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois returns 66% of last season's minutes and rates #283 on offense and #124 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.2 to +5.5.
Why we have them here
Southern Illinois's preseason projection of -1.9 (No. 206 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.9, about the -1.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 111 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.4, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.8. It returns 66% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Jalen Haynes (+1.8), Jorge Moreno (+0.4) and Jaheem Webber (+0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Ty Laur, a freshman, recruit No. 327, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -9.2 to +5.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 55% · Freshman 18% · Other newcomer 11%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 554 | Jalen Haynes | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 25 | +2.8 | +1.8 |
| 1194 | Jorge Moreno | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 18 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1313 | Jaheem Webber | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 15 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| 2044 | Isaiah Stafford | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 23 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 2252 | Ty Laur | C | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2554 | Caden Hawkins | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 13 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2731 | Luke Walsh | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3266 | Jeremiah Jackson | F | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 16 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| 3344 | Daniel Pauliukonis | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3687 | Luke Susko | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 14 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| 3960 | Max Pikaar | F | 7-0 | 2 | Returning | Southern Illinois | 17 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Kansas City #338 | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Richmond #136 | +2.9 | 59% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Liberty #150 | -2.0 | 44% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  UT Martin #271 | +2.2 | 57% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Portland State #186 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Washington State #162 | +4.0 | 63% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | +6.0 | 68% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Little Rock #320 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Drake #104 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Arizona State #52 | -16.2 | 10% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  UIC #120 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Bradley #194 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Murray State #117 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Belmont #94 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Evansville #317 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -7.0 | 29% |
| Sun Jan 24 | vs | Valparaiso #172 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Illinois State #108 | conf | -7.4 | 27% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Belmont #94 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Indiana State #116 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -8.3 | 25% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | Drake #104 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Murray State #117 | conf | -6.0 | 32% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Illinois State #108 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Bradley #194 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | UIC #120 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | Evansville #317 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
Projected margin is from Southern Illinois's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.