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Central Connecticut
Central Connecticut returns 70% of last season's minutes and rates #321 on offense and #287 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.4 to -0.4.
Why we have them here
Central Connecticut's preseason projection of -7.9 (No. 316 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.9, less than the -5.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 244 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, more than its neighbours' -1.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.8. It returns 70% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Daniel James (-0.5), Ashton Reynolds (-0.5) and Corsley Edwards Jr. (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Corsley Edwards Jr., a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -15.4 to -0.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 58% · Other newcomer 18%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3113 | Daniel James | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 17 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| 3383 | Ashton Reynolds | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 15 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
| 3676 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 12 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| 3878 | Roddy Jones | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 17 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| 4066 | Brayden Jackson | F | 6-8 | 2 | Other newcomer | 12 | -2.1 | -0.6 | |
| 4066 | Rashawn Tibby | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 12 | -2.1 | -0.6 | |
| 4114 | Adam Fox | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 11 | -2.3 | -0.6 |
| 4825 | Elijah Parker | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 18 | -2.8 | -1.3 |
| 4951 | Jayden Mott | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 12 | -3.8 | -1.2 |
| 5198 | James Jones | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Central Connecticut | 25 | -4.1 | -2.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Temple #149 | -10.6 | 19% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Syracuse #71 | -17.8 | 7% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Dartmouth #290 | -6.8 | 29% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  Sacred Heart #272 | -7.7 | 27% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Quinnipiac #200 | +0.4 | 51% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Navy #174 | -4.9 | 34% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Fairfield #248 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | N |  Brown #184 | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Loyola Maryland #344 | -2.2 | 43% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  VCU #44 | -20.3 | 5% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  Fordham #125 | -11.5 | 17% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Chicago State #337 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs |  Wagner #291 | conf | +0.5 | 51% |
| Fri Jan 08 | at |  Le Moyne #217 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Mercyhurst #239 | conf | -5.9 | 31% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  New Haven #326 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Stonehill #354 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | New Haven #326 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Stonehill #354 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Le Moyne #217 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Mercyhurst #239 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Wagner #291 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Chicago State #337 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Long Island University #210 | conf | -6.7 | 29% |
Projected margin is from Central Connecticut's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.