Roster Math

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Saint Peter's

Saint Peter's returns 50% of last season's minutes and rates #334 on offense and #195 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.5 to +1.2.

-6.1
Rating · #289 of 365
-6.0
Offense · #334
-0.1
Defense · #195
-13.5 to +1.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-16
Projected record · 8 to 19 wins
10-10
Projected in Metro · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Saint Peter's's preseason projection of -6.1 (No. 289 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.1, less than the -3.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 203 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 50% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Bryce Eaton (+0.2), Ken Walker (-0.4) and Phoenix Glassnor (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Ken Walker, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -13.5 to +1.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 45% · Transfer 34% · Other newcomer 22%

Bryce Eaton+0.2
Ken Walker-0.4
Phoenix Glassnor-0.4
Bourgeois Tshilobo-0.4
Mason Santiago-0.5
Xavier Thomas-0.5
Rob Wilmote-0.5
Akil Watson-0.6
Bol Agu-0.6
Jonathan Noudjihidi-0.7
Jahki Gupton-0.7
Shaedon Simpson-0.9
Trey Patterson-1.0
Bryson Wilson-3.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1398Bryce EatonG6-02ReturningSaint Peter's26+0.3+0.2
2923Phoenix GlassnorG6-01TransferToledo13-1.2-0.4
3073Ken WalkerF5-112Other newcomer11-1.4-0.4
3336Bourgeois TshiloboF6-81TransferWeber State10-1.6-0.4
3489Mason SantiagoF6-40Other newcomer11-1.7-0.5
3495Jahki GuptonF6-71ReturningSaint Peter's24-1.1-0.7
3563Xavier ThomasF6-53Other newcomer11-1.8-0.5
3774Bol AguF6-81ReturningSaint Peter's15-1.7-0.6
3916Akil WatsonF6-93Other newcomer11-2.0-0.6
3934Rob WilmoteG1ReturningSaint Peter's9-2.3-0.5
4380Jonathan NoudjihidiC6-111TransferUC Davis9-2.9-0.7
4432Shaedon SimpsonG6-63ReturningSaint Peter's15-2.4-0.9
4794Trey PattersonF6-96TransferRice11-3.5-1.0
5246Bryson WilsonG6-53TransferBinghamton23-5.6-3.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atSeton Hall #106-12.415%
Thu Nov 05vsBinghamton #330+7.072%
Sun Nov 08atNJIT #347-1.446%
Wed Nov 11atSouth Carolina #98-14.113%
Tue Nov 17atUMass Lowell #287-6.231%
Sat Nov 21vsStony Brook #283+5.166%
Wed Nov 25atColumbia #169-9.422%
Wed Dec 02atManhattan #309conf-1.047%
Sun Dec 06vsSacred Heart #272conf+1.755%
Wed Dec 16atRutgers #102-13.214%
Fri Dec 18vsLe Moyne #217+2.859%
Fri Jan 01atQuinnipiac #200conf-5.034%
Sun Jan 03vsRider #351conf+6.270%
Fri Jan 08atCanisius #346conf+1.254%
Sun Jan 10atNiagara #329conf+0.251%
Wed Jan 13vsMerrimack #176conf-1.445%
Sat Jan 16vsSiena #208conf-0.548%
Mon Jan 18atMount St. Mary's #204conf-4.536%
Sun Jan 24atRider #351conf+2.257%
Fri Jan 29vsCanisius #346conf+5.567%
Sun Jan 31vsNiagara #329conf+3.862%
Fri Feb 05atMerrimack #176conf-5.533%
Sun Feb 07atFairfield #248conf-3.738%
Thu Feb 11vsIona #282conf+2.157%
Sat Feb 13vsMarist #205conf-0.548%
Fri Feb 19atSacred Heart #272conf-3.439%
Sun Feb 21vsManhattan #309conf+3.260%
Fri Feb 26vsQuinnipiac #200conf-0.748%
Sun Feb 28atIona #282conf-2.941%

Projected margin is from Saint Peter's's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.