Teams › OVC · Compare Western Illinois with another team
Western Illinois
Western Illinois returns 81% of last season's minutes and rates #360 on offense and #364 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -24.0 to -9.3.
Why we have them here
Western Illinois's preseason projection of -16.5 (No. 362 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -9.4, less than the -7.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 360 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.1, less than its neighbours' -3.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.3. It returns 81% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Karyiek Dixon (+0.4), Lucas Lorenzen (-0.6) and Jake Edwards (-0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Jack Riley, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -1.1. Its 80% range, -24.0 to -9.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 75% · Other newcomer 13%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1233 | Karyiek Dixon | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 20 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| 3169 | Lucas Lorenzen | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 25 | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| 4773 | Jake Edwards | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 5 | -5.3 | -0.6 |
| 4872 | Jack Riley | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 12 | -3.5 | -1.1 | |
| 4942 | Taye Moore | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 13 | -3.6 | -1.2 | ||
| 5004 | Ifiok Peter | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 7 | -5.1 | -1.0 |
| 5124 | Makai Kvamme | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 20 | -3.8 | -1.9 |
| 5134 | Tyran Cook | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Western Illinois | 13 | -4.8 | -1.6 |
| 5174 | Marcus Pigram | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Western Illinois | 10 | -6.2 | -1.5 |
| 5210 | Antwaun Massey | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Western Illinois | 17 | -5.2 | -2.2 |
| 5212 | Danny Stephens | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Western Illinois | 12 | -6.2 | -1.9 |
| 5244 | Isaiah Griffin | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Western Illinois | 20 | -5.8 | -3.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Valparaiso #172 | -16.0 | 10% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | N |  Houston Christian #273 | -7.4 | 27% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | -0.8 | 48% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | at |  Minnesota #65 | -22.7 | 3% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  UAlbany #293 | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Mercyhurst #239 | -8.5 | 24% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | at |  Canisius #346 | -8.4 | 24% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Coastal Carolina #301 | -11.5 | 17% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | at | Houston Christian #273 | -12.0 | 16% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Indiana #55 | -25.4 | 2% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Tennessee State #154 | conf | -10.5 | 20% |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Iowa #33 | -26.0 | 2% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at | Tennessee State #154 | conf | -14.5 | 12% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | -12.0 | 16% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | conf | -5.9 | 31% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Morehead State #265 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Southern Indiana #315 | conf | -7.3 | 28% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | -11.3 | 18% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | UT Martin #271 | conf | -9.2 | 22% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs |  Lindenwood #258 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Morehead State #265 | conf | -6.3 | 30% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | -7.5 | 27% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Southern Indiana #315 | conf | -4.3 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Lindenwood #258 | conf | -11.2 | 18% |
Projected margin is from Western Illinois's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.