Teams › OVC · Compare Tennessee State with another team
Tennessee State
Tennessee State returns 65% of last season's minutes and rates #185 on offense and #130 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.6 to +7.9.
Why we have them here
Tennessee State's preseason projection of +0.7 (No. 154 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.4, about the +0.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 159 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.3. It returns 65% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Aaron Nkrumah (+2.4), Travis Harper II (+2.0) and Aaron Bradshaw (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Aaron Bradshaw, a transfer from Memphis, at +1.4. Its 80% range, -6.6 to +7.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 61% · Transfer 32% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 377 | Aaron Nkrumah | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Tennessee State | 25 | +3.8 | +2.4 |
| 489 | Travis Harper II | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee State | 26 | +3.1 | +2.0 |
| 573 | Aaron Bradshaw | F | 7-1 | 3 | Transfer | Memphis | 16 | +3.5 | +1.4 |
| 1282 | Antoine Lorick III | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee State | 18 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| 1403 | Ty-Laur Johnson | G | 6-0 | 3 | Transfer | San Diego | 19 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 2376 | Maddux Bodenhamer | F | 6-2 | 2 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.4 | -0.1 | |
| 2713 | Deondrea Lindsey | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2789 | Ogien Ayo | F | 6-9 | 2 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 2923 | Jayden Jones | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee State | 4 | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2990 | Jean Yvens Lafleur | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee State | 5 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| 3022 | Kavien Jones | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee State | 8 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3195 | Alex Garcia | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee State | 3 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| 3621 | Damon Howard Jr. | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee State | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| 3774 | Arterio Morris | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Bethune-Cookman | 19 | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| 3850 | Isaiah Stewart | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Northern Illinois | 4 | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| 4219 | JC Brooks | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee State | 5 | -3.4 | -0.5 |
| 4313 | Carlous Williams | F | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Tennessee State | 14 | -2.3 | -0.8 |
| 4609 | Jabrion Spikes | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee State | 7 | -3.8 | -0.7 |
| 4645 | Christian Alston | G | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Abilene Christian | 7 | -3.9 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Murray State #117 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Tennessee #13 | -21.2 | 4% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  South Florida #83 | -12.0 | 17% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | -11.3 | 18% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | N |  Grambling #302 | +5.4 | 67% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  Florida A&M #336 | +7.4 | 72% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | at |  Western Illinois #362 | conf | +10.5 | 80% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Alabama A&M #343 | +13.1 | 86% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Southern Indiana #315 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs | Western Illinois #362 | conf | +14.5 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Morehead State #265 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Lindenwood #258 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Southern Indiana #315 | conf | +8.7 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Lindenwood #258 | conf | +6.4 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Morehead State #265 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | +9.0 | 77% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | UT Martin #271 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
Projected margin is from Tennessee State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.