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Georgia State
Georgia State returns 27% of last season's minutes and rates #227 on offense and #285 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.7 to +2.7.
Why we have them here
Georgia State's preseason projection of -4.5 (No. 260 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.5, more than the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 310 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, less than its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.5. It returns 27% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Jaden Jackson (+2.7), Terrance Dixon Jr. (+1.2) and Eric Parnell (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jaden Jackson, a transfer from South Dakota State, at +2.7. Its 80% range, -11.7 to +2.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 21% · Transfer 67% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 323 | Jaden Jackson | G | 6-0 | 2 | Transfer | South Dakota State | 26 | +4.1 | +2.7 |
| 726 | Terrance Dixon Jr. | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Southern | 19 | +2.5 | +1.2 |
| 916 | Mason Nicholson | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | Vanderbilt | 6 | +3.1 | +0.5 |
| 1137 | Eric Parnell | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Fairleigh Dickinson | 22 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 2931 | Keeper Jackson | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| 3162 | Emmanuel Koveos | F | 6-0 | 2 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3169 | Jacob Meyer | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | UAB | 20 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| 3314 | Kwame Tanic | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Georgia State | 3 | -2.8 | -0.2 |
| 3578 | Jacolb Cole | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.4 | -0.4 | ||
| 3739 | Trey Scott III | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Georgia State | 15 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 3851 | Jonas Sirtautas | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Loyola Maryland | 12 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 3886 | Chris Jones | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Georgia State | 6 | -2.7 | -0.4 |
| 3895 | Clash Peters | F | 6-9 | 2 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.6 | -0.4 | |
| 4001 | AJ Smith | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Temple | 9 | -2.4 | -0.5 |
| 4300 | David Thomas | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | Richmond | 10 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| 4782 | Isaiah Sherrard | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Georgia State | 6 | -4.9 | -0.7 |
| 4816 | Ayouba Berthe | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Georgia State | 12 | -3.4 | -1.0 |
| 4934 | Zion Wilburn | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Samford | 11 | -4.0 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Bowling Green #266 | +6.2 | 69% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Charlotte #131 | -9.8 | 21% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Norfolk State #300 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Jacksonville State #203 | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Tulane #250 | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Mercer #231 | +5.0 | 66% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Kennesaw State #167 | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  James Madison #147 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | -15.0 | 11% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Louisiana #294 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Troy #155 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | conf | -7.8 | 27% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Marshall #247 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  App State #229 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +4.3 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | James Madison #147 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | Marshall #247 | conf | -3.3 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Old Dominion #297 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | App State #229 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Old Dominion #297 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | Georgia Southern #298 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
Projected margin is from Georgia State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.