Teams › MAC · Compare Ohio with another team
Ohio
Ohio returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #189 on offense and #275 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.6 to +4.1.
Why we have them here
Ohio's preseason projection of -3.2 (No. 232 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.1, less than the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 243 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Kolton Mitchell (+2.0), Javan Simmons (+0.8) and Jordan Fisher (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Kolton Mitchell, a transfer from Idaho, at +2.0. Its 80% range, -10.6 to +4.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 40% · Transfer 14% · Other newcomer 17%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 515 | Kolton Mitchell | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Idaho | 28 | +2.9 | +2.0 |
| 996 | Javan Simmons | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Ohio | 26 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| 3516 | Jordan Fisher | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Ohio | 12 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 3680 | Carter Reese | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| 3803 | Chase Boals | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.9 | -0.5 | |
| 3964 | Zay Mosley | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.1 | -0.6 | |
| 4709 | Kiir Kuany | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Ohio | 13 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| 4914 | Dior Conners | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Ohio | 15 | -3.3 | -1.2 |
| 5081 | Jesse Burris | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Ohio | 13 | -4.3 | -1.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  South Alabama #228 | -5.4 | 33% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  North Carolina A&T #285 | +8.4 | 75% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Purdue #38 | -17.6 | 8% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Morehead State #265 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  New Mexico State #137 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Rice #262 | +0.9 | 53% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Toledo #173 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Ball State #153 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Buffalo #209 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Wed Dec 23 | at |  Robert Morris #113 | -10.2 | 20% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Akron #73 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Massachusetts #178 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Kent State #133 | conf | -5.7 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Massachusetts #178 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | Akron #73 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Buffalo #209 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Western Michigan #151 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Central Michigan #259 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Ball State #153 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Kent State #133 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -9.9 | 21% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Bowling Green #266 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Fri Mar 05 | at | Toledo #173 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
Projected margin is from Ohio's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.