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Massachusetts
Massachusetts returns 73% of last season's minutes and rates #204 on offense and #154 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.9 to +6.6.
Why we have them here
Massachusetts's preseason projection of -0.6 (No. 178 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.3, less than the -0.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 183 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 73% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Jordan Clayton (+1.4), Jayden Ndjigue (+1.2) and Danny Carbuccia (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is Jordan Clayton, a transfer from Northwestern, at +1.4. Its 80% range, -7.9 to +6.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 64% · Transfer 27% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 648 | Jordan Clayton | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | Northwestern | 20 | +2.8 | +1.4 |
| 796 | Jayden Ndjigue | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Massachusetts | 26 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| 868 | Danny Carbuccia | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | Massachusetts | 25 | +1.7 | +1.1 |
| 1759 | Abdullah Ahmed | C | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | BYU | 14 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2737 | Isaiah Placide | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Massachusetts | 13 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2893 | Josh Engel | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 2927 | Junjie Wang | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | San Francisco | 19 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| 3468 | Bilal Osman | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.8 | -0.4 | |
| 3528 | Dimitri Clerc | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Massachusetts | 12 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 3779 | Charles Outlaw | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Massachusetts | 8 | -2.2 | -0.5 |
| 3960 | Luka Damjanac | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Massachusetts | 13 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 4361 | Rollie Castineyra | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Massachusetts | 8 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 4638 | Donovan Brown | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Massachusetts | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 |
| 5183 | Dwayne Wimbley Jr. | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Massachusetts | 14 | -5.3 | -1.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Troy #155 | -7.3 | 28% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  Boston College #114 | -2.9 | 41% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  UMass Lowell #287 | +9.8 | 78% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Bryant #327 | +11.4 | 82% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Maine #318 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  Northeastern #296 | -0.8 | 48% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | +5.3 | 67% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sun Dec 06 | N |  Wake Forest #76 | -6.5 | 30% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Kent State #133 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Stonehill #354 | +14.6 | 88% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Akron #73 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Ball State #153 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Buffalo #209 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Ohio #232 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Toledo #173 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Ohio #232 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Akron #73 | conf | -10.2 | 21% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Central Michigan #259 | conf | -0.5 | 49% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | Kent State #133 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Ball State #153 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Western Michigan #151 | conf | -3.3 | 40% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Buffalo #209 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Bowling Green #266 | conf | +5.9 | 68% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | Toledo #173 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Fri Mar 05 | at | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -8.2 | 26% |
Projected margin is from Massachusetts's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.