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Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic returns 36% of last season's minutes and rates #108 on offense and #190 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.4 to +10.2.
Why we have them here
Florida Atlantic's preseason projection of +2.8 (No. 122 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.9, less than the +1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 130 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.2. It returns 36% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Jelani Hamilton (+3.4), Kanaan Carlyle (+2.1) and Braeden Speed (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jelani Hamilton, a transfer from Georgia State, at +3.4. Its 80% range, -4.4 to +10.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 33% · Transfer 47% · Freshman 12% · Other newcomer 8%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Jelani Hamilton | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Georgia State | 27 | +5.0 | +3.4 |
| 476 | Kanaan Carlyle | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Florida Atlantic | 28 | +3.1 | +2.1 |
| 828 | Braeden Speed | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Loyola Maryland | 27 | +1.7 | +1.2 |
| 1968 | Felipe Quinones | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2277 | Fawaz Ifaola | C | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Colorado | 11 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2713 | Zion Sampaio | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2760 | Liam Dayco-Green | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Florida Atlantic | 8 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 2947 | Franck Belibi | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| 3114 | Lachlan Smith | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Florida Atlantic | 7 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3220 | Josh Harris | F | 6-8 | 2 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3261 | Vincent Neugebauer | C | 7-1 | 1 | Returning | Florida Atlantic | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3432 | Yohann Sissoko | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Florida Atlantic | 13 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 4369 | Kieran Mullen | C | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Pittsburgh | 6 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
| 5021 | Milhan Charles | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 23 | -3.0 | -1.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | +9.9 | 79% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Wright State #165 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  William & Mary #168 | +9.0 | 76% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | +13.2 | 86% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Mercer #231 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Davidson #132 | +6.6 | 70% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Florida International #143 | -5.0 | 35% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  St. Bonaventure #126 | -5.3 | 34% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  VCU #44 | -7.3 | 28% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | N |  Loyola Chicago #166 | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Colorado State #67 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Charlotte #131 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  North Texas #135 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Memphis #100 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  UAB #158 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs | Tulsa #82 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Rice #262 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  East Carolina #182 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sun Jan 31 | vs |  South Florida #83 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at |  UTSA #284 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Temple #149 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at |  Tulane #250 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Charlotte #131 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | North Texas #135 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | Rice #262 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | South Florida #83 | conf | -6.9 | 29% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | UAB #158 | conf | +5.0 | 65% |
Projected margin is from Florida Atlantic's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.