Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Colorado State with another team
Colorado State
Colorado State returns 69% of last season's minutes and rates #52 on offense and #84 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.2 to +16.8.
Why we have them here
Colorado State's preseason projection of +9.4 (No. 67 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +4.7, less than the +5.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 102 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.0. It returns 69% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Justin Menard (+3.3), Kyle Jorgensen (+2.7) and Carey Booth (+2.3); the newcomer who matters most is Justin Menard, a transfer from Marist, at +3.3. Its 80% range, +2.2 to +16.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 66% · Transfer 14% · Freshman 12% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211 | Justin Menard | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Marist | 27 | +4.9 | +3.3 |
| 279 | Kyle Jorgensen | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Colorado State | 25 | +4.5 | +2.7 |
| 418 | Carey Booth | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Colorado State | 26 | +3.6 | +2.3 |
| 456 | Jase Butler | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Colorado State | 27 | +3.3 | +2.2 |
| 1261 | Josh Pascarelli | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Colorado State | 23 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| 1390 | Rashaan Mbemba | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Colorado State | 16 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1995 | Jaden Ghoreishi | C | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2226 | Pops Dunson | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2651 | Docker Tedeschi | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2719 | Eric Fiedler | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 2807 | Charlie Dortch | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Colorado State | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 4061 | Jojo McIver | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Colorado State | 12 | -2.1 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Montana State #138 | +10.7 | 81% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Idaho #251 | +14.5 | 88% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Portland State #186 | +12.7 | 85% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | +11.7 | 83% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | +13.8 | 87% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Arizona #3 | -9.9 | 21% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  UT Arlington #211 | +13.0 | 86% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Colorado #85 | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Queens University #142 | +11.4 | 82% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Wyoming #121 | +10.0 | 79% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | N |  Nevada #66 | +0.0 | 50% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Florida Atlantic #122 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | -9.7 | 21% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Texas State #183 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -10.4 | 20% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  San Diego State #81 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +10.7 | 81% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Washington State #162 | conf | +8.9 | 77% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Texas State #183 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | San Diego State #81 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Fresno State #221 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Oregon State #93 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  Utah State #29 | conf | -7.2 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Washington State #162 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs |  Boise State #87 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Utah State #29 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Oregon State #93 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Boise State #87 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
Projected margin is from Colorado State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.