Teams › Mountain West · Compare Air Force with another team
Air Force
Air Force returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #355 on offense and #339 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -20.7 to -6.2.
Why we have them here
Air Force's preseason projection of -13.5 (No. 357 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.9, about the -7.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 359 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.2, less than its neighbours' -2.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.8. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (80%). The projection leans most on Kam Sanders (+1.8), Keaton Frisch (-0.3) and Elliott Taite (-0.3). Its 80% range, -20.7 to -6.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 100%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 560 | Kam Sanders | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 27 | +2.7 | +1.8 |
| 3606 | Caleb Walker | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Air Force | 18 | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| 3851 | Elliott Taite | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 3 | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| 4069 | Keaton Frisch | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 2 | -4.8 | -0.3 |
| 4144 | Chris Catchings | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 3 | -4.5 | -0.3 |
| 4496 | Sam Imade | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 3 | -5.3 | -0.4 |
| 4526 | Riley Dering | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 10 | -3.0 | -0.8 |
| 4532 | Brendan Martin | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 5 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
| 4774 | Josh Gatete | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Air Force | 3 | -6.6 | -0.5 |
| 4836 | Lucas Hobin | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 25 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| 4921 | Ethan Greenberg | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 24 | -2.6 | -1.6 |
| 4971 | Wesley Celichowski | C | 7-0 | 3 | Returning | Air Force | 17 | -3.3 | -1.4 |
| 5042 | Kyle Marshall | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Air Force | 10 | -4.7 | -1.1 |
| 5092 | A.J. Patterson | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Air Force | 11 | -4.9 | -1.3 |
| 5105 | Eli Robinson | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Air Force | 22 | -3.5 | -1.9 |
| 5114 | Justin Hinds | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Air Force | 8 | -5.8 | -1.2 |
| 5166 | Kolby Gilles | F | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Air Force | 9 | -6.2 | -1.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Wright State #165 | -14.5 | 12% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Idaho State #261 | -1.8 | 44% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Pacific #175 | -12.8 | 15% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  UTSA #284 | -10.0 | 21% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Army #314 | -3.9 | 38% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Brown #184 | -4.3 | 36% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Denver #240 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Navy #174 | -4.5 | 36% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Austin Peay #163 | -15.5 | 10% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +1.7 | 55% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Utah #72 | -22.2 | 4% | |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  San José State #187 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  UTEP #237 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | conf | -11.4 | 18% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  New Mexico #50 | conf | -16.5 | 9% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Nevada #66 | conf | -18.4 | 7% |
| Fri Jan 22 | vs |  Wyoming #121 | conf | -9.7 | 21% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -19.0 | 6% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | New Mexico #50 | conf | -20.7 | 5% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  UNLV #139 | conf | -9.3 | 23% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  UC Davis #255 | conf | -8.1 | 26% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Hawai'i #179 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | San José State #187 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -14.9 | 11% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | UC Davis #255 | conf | -5.2 | 34% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | UNLV #139 | conf | -13.3 | 14% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Wyoming #121 | conf | -13.6 | 13% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Nevada #66 | conf | -14.2 | 12% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | UTEP #237 | conf | -8.5 | 24% |
Projected margin is from Air Force's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.