Roster Math

Teams › Horizon · Compare Northern Illinois with another team

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois returns 63% of last season's minutes and rates #331 on offense and #300 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.5 to -1.9.

-9.2
Rating · #333 of 365
-5.9
Offense · #331
-3.4
Defense · #300
-16.5 to -1.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
10-21
Projected record · 5 to 15 wins
7-13
Projected in Horizon · 3 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Northern Illinois's preseason projection of -9.2 (No. 333 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.6, more than the -5.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 337 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.4, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.6. It returns 63% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Uzziah Buntyn (+1.0), Jack Daugherty (+0.7) and Taj Walters (+0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Uzziah Buntyn, a transfer from South Dakota, at +1.0. Its 80% range, -16.5 to -1.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 60% · Transfer 37% · Other newcomer 4%

Uzziah Buntyn+1.0
Jack Daugherty+0.7
Taj Walters+0.2
David Douglas Jr.+0.0
Mykolas Ivanauskas-0.2
Max Laskey-0.3
Lataevyon Taylor-0.4
Gustav Winther-0.5
Jaylen Wharton-0.6
Isaiah Washington-0.7
Ladji Kante-0.7
Carlos Coronado-0.9
JJ Taylor-1.0
Hassan Washington-1.5
Daemar Kelly-2.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
913Jack DaughertyF6-82TransferIllinois State12+2.2+0.7
933Uzziah BuntynG6-11TransferSouth Dakota26+1.5+1.0
1444Taj WaltersG6-51ReturningNorthern Illinois26+0.2+0.2
1620David Douglas Jr.G6-53TransferFresno State15+0.1+0.0
2091Mykolas IvanauskasF6-82TransferMercyhurst19-0.4-0.2
3120Gustav WintherF6-101ReturningNorthern Illinois19-1.1-0.5
3737Lataevyon TaylorF6-00Other newcomer7-2.3-0.4
4027Max LaskeyG6-51ReturningNorthern Illinois4-3.8-0.3
4492Jaylen WhartonF6-91ReturningNorthern Illinois6-3.7-0.6
4599Isaiah WashingtonG6-51ReturningNorthern Illinois7-3.8-0.7
4669JJ TaylorF6-83ReturningNorthern Illinois14-2.9-1.0
4689Ladji KanteF6-71ReturningNorthern Illinois7-3.9-0.7
4902Carlos CoronadoG6-31ReturningNorthern Illinois8-4.5-0.9
5104Hassan WashingtonF6-81ReturningNorthern Illinois13-4.5-1.5
5204Daemar KellyG6-53ReturningNorthern Illinois16-5.3-2.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NGrambling #302-1.744%
Thu Nov 05atTulsa #82-17.87%
Sat Nov 07atDayton #74-18.67%
Sat Nov 14atBellarmine #305-7.029%
Wed Nov 18atMarquette #47-22.54%
Sat Nov 21atBowling Green #266-9.023%
Wed Nov 25atSIU Edwardsville #234-9.821%
Sat Nov 28atEastern Illinois #324-5.832%
Thu Dec 03atGreen Bay #281conf-4.735%
Sat Dec 05vsMilwaukee #242conf-2.143%
Sat Dec 12atLindenwood #258-9.422%
Sat Dec 19vsEastern Illinois #324+4.464%
Mon Dec 21atArizona #3-31.4<1%
Wed Dec 30atYoungstown State #215conf-7.328%
Sun Jan 03atRobert Morris #113conf-11.118%
Thu Jan 07vsCleveland State #207conf-3.340%
Sat Jan 09vsWright State #165conf-4.635%
Thu Jan 14atDetroit Mercy #312conf-3.240%
Sun Jan 17vsGreen Bay #281conf-0.648%
Thu Jan 21atNorthern Kentucky #270conf-5.732%
Sat Jan 23atWright State #165conf-8.824%
Wed Jan 27vsOakland #159conf-5.134%
Sat Jan 30atMilwaukee #242conf-6.630%
Thu Feb 04atIU Indianapolis #279conf-5.733%
Sun Feb 07vsNorthern Kentucky #270conf-1.146%
Wed Feb 10vsYoungstown State #215conf-3.040%
Sat Feb 13atPurdue Fort Wayne #212conf-7.727%
Wed Feb 17vsDetroit Mercy #312conf+0.853%
Sun Feb 21vsRobert Morris #113conf-6.929%
Wed Feb 24atCleveland State #207conf-7.926%
Sat Feb 27vsIU Indianapolis #279conf-0.947%

Projected margin is from Northern Illinois's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.