Roster Math

Teams › SoCon · Compare UNC Greensboro with another team

UNC Greensboro

UNC Greensboro returns 59% of last season's minutes and rates #138 on offense and #334 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.0 to +3.5.

-3.7
Rating · #246 of 365
+1.0
Offense · #138
-4.7
Defense · #334
-11.0 to +3.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-16
Projected record · 8 to 18 wins
10-10
Projected in SoCon · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

UNC Greensboro's preseason projection of -3.7 (No. 246 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.7, about the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 293 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.2, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.1. It returns 59% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Braxton Stacker (+1.9), KJ Younger (+0.7) and Zavier Fitch (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Braxton Stacker, a transfer from Southeast Missouri State, at +1.9. Its 80% range, -11.0 to +3.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 54% · Transfer 26% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 14%

Braxton Stacker+1.9
KJ Younger+0.7
Zavier Fitch+0.0
RJ Greer+0.0
Dionte Neal+0.0
Braylen Bowman-0.3
Clyde Bailey II-0.5
Jordan Brown-0.5
Chane Bynum-0.5
Jon Mani-0.6
Brock Mishak-0.6
Assane Mandian-0.6
Landon King-0.7
Clinton Efinda-1.0
Donald Whitehead Jr.-1.2
Domas Kauzonas-1.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
501Braxton StackerG6-54TransferSoutheast Missouri State24+3.2+1.9
1047KJ YoungerG6-41ReturningUNC Greensboro25+1.1+0.7
1623Zavier FitchF6-72TransferWagner18+0.1+0.0
1640RJ GreerG6-31TransferDavidson9+0.0+0.0
1711Dionte NealG5-90FreshmanHigh school12-0.1+0.0
3236Braylen BowmanG6-11ReturningUNC Greensboro7-1.9-0.3
3662Jordan BrownF6-10Other newcomer9-2.0-0.5
3709Clyde Bailey IIG6-12ReturningUNC Greensboro9-2.1-0.5
3993Chane BynumF6-91ReturningUNC Greensboro7-2.7-0.5
4056Jon ManiF6-72Other newcomer9-2.4-0.6
4148Brock MishakG1Other newcomer9-2.5-0.6
4316Assane MandianG6-71ReturningUNC Greensboro9-2.8-0.6
4513Landon KingG6-11ReturningUNC Greensboro9-3.2-0.7
4672Clinton EfindaF6-52ReturningUNC Greensboro14-2.9-1.0
4689Donald Whitehead Jr.G5-101ReturningUNC Greensboro21-2.4-1.2
5150Domas KauzonasF6-103ReturningUNC Greensboro9-6.0-1.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atElon #198-6.430%
Mon Nov 09atUIC #120-9.622%
Sat Nov 14atCornell #109-10.720%
Wed Nov 18atGardner-Webb #361+3.060%
Sat Nov 21vsSouth Carolina Upstate #268+6.670%
Mon Nov 23atPepperdine #249-4.935%
Tue Nov 24atUC Santa Barbara #103-10.919%
Tue Dec 01atVMI #350conf+2.959%
Sat Dec 05vsFurman #110conf-2.741%
Fri Dec 11atNC State #36-18.96%
Tue Dec 15atSeton Hall #106-11.218%
Sat Dec 19atEast Tennessee State #171conf-5.034%
Wed Dec 30vsThe Citadel #345conf+7.473%
Sat Jan 02vsWofford #306conf+4.865%
Thu Jan 07atChattanooga #226conf-2.442%
Sat Jan 09atTennessee Tech #280conf-0.848%
Wed Jan 13vsWestern Carolina #152conf-0.648%
Sat Jan 16vsEast Tennessee State #171conf+0.150%
Thu Jan 21atSamford #190conf-4.735%
Sat Jan 23atMercer #231conf-3.040%
Thu Jan 28vsTennessee Tech #280conf+3.762%
Sat Jan 30vsChattanooga #226conf+1.856%
Wed Feb 03atThe Citadel #345conf+2.859%
Thu Feb 11vsSamford #190conf+0.752%
Sat Feb 13vsMercer #231conf+2.257%
Thu Feb 18atWofford #306conf+0.752%
Sat Feb 20atWestern Carolina #152conf-5.632%
Wed Feb 24vsVMI #350conf+8.275%
Sat Feb 27atFurman #110conf-7.427%

Projected margin is from UNC Greensboro's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.